Impacts of climate changes on water resources in Yellow River Basin,China

Authors:

Yongnan Zhu^{a, b,*}, Zhaohui Lin^b, Jianhua Wang^a, Yong Zhao^a, Fan He^a

^a State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, A-1  Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100038, China

^b International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences(ICCES). Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing  100029, China

Abstract:

his study examined the impacts of future climate changes on water resources and extreme flows in Yellow  River Basin (YRB), China, using the Coupled Land surface and Hydrology Model System (CLHMS) driven by the  IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. First, the skill of 14 IPCC AR5 GCMS for simulating temporal and spatial  temperature and precipitation in Yellow River Basin has been evaluated. Using the bias-corrected result of RCP  storylines, the CLHMS model was developed to predict the 21 century climate and water cycle change. All the three  simulation results indicate a reduction in water resources. The current situation of water shortage since 1980s will  keep continue, the water resources reduction varies between 30 and 24% for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 scenario simulation shows a decrease of water resources in the early and mid 21th century, but after 2080, with the  increase of rainfall, the extreme flood events tends to increase.

Key words: 

Coupled land surface-hydrology model, Water resources, climate change,hydrological process simulation, Yellow River Basin

Citation:

Procedia Engineering 154( 2016 )  687 – 695