An effective approach for improving the real-time prediction of summer rainfall over China

Authors:

LANG Xian-Mei
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing 100029, China 
Abstract :

This paper has two purposes. One is to evaluate the ability of an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP9L-AGCM) to predict summer rainfall over China one season in advance. The other is to propose a new approach to improve the predictions made by the model. First, a set of hindcast experiments for summer climate over China during 1982–2010 are performed from the perspective of real-time prediction with the IAP9LAGCM model and the IAP ENSO prediction system. Then a new approach that effectively combines the hindcast with its correction is proposed to further improve the model’s predictive ability. A systematic evaluation reveals that the model’s real-time predictions for 41 stations across China show significant improvement using this new approach, especially in the lower reaches between the Yellow River and Yangtze River valleys. 

Key words :

predictive ability, IAP9L-AGCM, summer rainfall over China

Citation: 

Lang, X.-M., 2011: An effective approach for improving the real-time prediction of summer rainfall over China, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 4, 75–80.