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Flood Simulations and Uncertainty Analysis for the Pearl River Basin Using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System

Authors:

Yongnan Zhu 1,2, Zhaohui Lin 2,3, Yong Zhao 1,*, Haihong Li 1, Fan He 1, Jiaqi Zhai 1,
Lizhen Wang 1 and Qingming Wang 1


1 State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water
Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; zhyn@iwhr.com (Y.Z.); lihh@iwhr.com (H.L.);
hefan@iwhr.com (F.H.); jiaqizhai@163.com (J.Z.); wanglz07@126.com (L.W.); wangqm@iwhr.com (Q.W.)
2 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; lzh@mail.iap.ac.cn
3 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
* Correspondence: zhaoyong@iwhr.com; Tel.: +86-10-6878-1370
Academic Editors: Gordon Huang and Yurui Fan
Received: 23 March 2017; Accepted: 28 May 2017; Published: 1 June 2017


 

Keywords: 

coupled land surface-hydrology model; flood simulation; uncertainty analysis; Pearl River Basin


 

Abstract: 

The performances of hydrological simulations for the Pearl River Basin in China wereanalysed using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System (CLHMS). Three datasets,including East Asia (EA), high-resolution gauge satellite-merged China Merged Precipitation Analysis(CMPA)-Daily, and the Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration TowardsEvaluation (APHRODITE) daily precipitation were used to drive the CLHMS model to simulate dailyhydrological processes from 1998 to 2006. The results indicate that the precipitation data was the mostimportant source of uncertainty in the hydrological simulation. The simulated streamflow driven bythe CMPA-Daily agreed well with observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (PMC) greaterthan 0.70 and an index of agreement (IOA) similarity coefficient greater than 0.82 at Liuzhou, Shijiao,and Wuzhou Stations. Comparison of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) shows that thepeak flow simulation ability of CLHMS driven with the CMPA-Daily rainfall is relatively superiorto that with the EA and APHRODITE datasets. The simulation results for the high-flow periods in1998 and 2005 indicate that the CLHMS is promising for its future application in the flood simulation
and prediction.


 

Citation:

Yongnan Zhu, Zhaohui Lin, Yong Zhao,Haihong Li , Fan He, Jiaqi Zhai Lizhen Wang , Qingming Wang ,Flood Simulations and Uncertainty Analysis for the Pearl River Basin Using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System,Water 2017, 9, 391; doi:10.3390/w9060391

 

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